31

The Governor agreed to your advise to support the locally-led integrated approach. This was based on the extensive consultation process that had previously been initiated. While it took some time to complete, it generated a range of suggestions to support initiatives directly proposed by groups of residents in the city, including local tourism projects, support for the diversification of local farming – including organic products –, and improved fisheries management to increase the yield while also ensuring environmental conservation. These were all synergetic and generated new opportunities for local economic activities, while improving community solidarity. The various community members involved were active in designing and implementing the projects, and happy with the support provided by the local government.

The large-scale farmers and rice millers, as well as the construction company, were not involved in these local projects, and did not agree with the strategy. They continued to argue that this approach was not fulfilling the full potential for economic growth in Riverbank City. The national government initially also questioned the strategy on the same basis, but once the outcomes were observed were broadly satisfied with the diversified local economy that emerged.

Meanwhile, the Governor was reelected on the basis of the constructive approach taken to working together with the majority of the city’s residents to support their initiatives. Their support for local development won awards in other countries, raising the profile of Riverbank City and attracting more tourism.

Outcome Analysis:

The decision has been based on extensive inclusion of most stakeholders in the Riverside City (inclusive reciprocity). This path opened up a discussion for a range of development options, including but also beyond the Regional Rice Hub plan (diffuse reciprocity). Local government officers must deal with more complex management and administration, which is also more time consuming. However, in selecting locally-led integrated development trust was generated between the residents and the local government, who worked together to create and implement projects (positive reciprocity). While the option did not include the large-scale economic actors (dam construction company, rice millers and large-scale rice farmers), and arguably did not generate the maximum economic growth, the pathway selected ensured equitable distribution of opportunities.

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30

You have advised to fund the solar farm and a small water divergence dam, because the negative environmental and social impacts are less than the large dam while it can produce enough electricity and water to support the Regional Rice Hub initiative.

The rice mill owners and the large-scale rice farmers are satisfied enough with the alternative proposed, that is of smaller scale than originally envisioned, but still facilitates the general plan that was first proposed. Whilst the dam construction company did not win a major contract, the Governor offered a small contract related to the construction of the solar farm that also was satisfactory enough.

The water diversion dams, together with the increased large-scale agriculture activity, has had some impact on the river and its ecosystems, and the number of wild capture fish have dropped a small amount, but the fishing communities continue to practice their original livelihood and consider it satisfactory enough that the original large dam project did not go ahead and has been permanently cancelled.

Other residents, including tourism and small-scale farmers were also satisfied enough, as in the process of redesigning the Regional Rice Hub compromises were also made to support a limited number of locally-led initiatives. Some innovative connections were made, for example, between biofuel small-scale electricity generation supplying the town and the rice mills, and the farm waste from the small- and large-scale rice farmers fields. 

While the redesign of the project delays the timeline from its original plan by 2 years, the Governor was satisfied with the outcome as they were reelected in the interim given the goodwill broadly generated from the compromise solution.

Outcome Analysis:

This decision-making that has led to the ‘compromise’ of a solar farm and a small water divergence dam has broadly reflected a participatory approach with numerous compromises along the way seeking to distribute some benefits to all involved, while minimizing the harms created and avoiding their unequal allocation (i.e. inclusive, diffuse and positive reciprocity). While it took some time to reach the decision on the project design, the quality of decision making was improved with more careful consideration of the social and environmental negative impacts, and allowing time – even within a more limited budget – for more innovative solutions to be identified. The large-scale solar project doesn’t directly benefit all sectors of the economy, but this solution has a spin-off impact for people’s behavioral change toward renewable energy consumption.

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28

The Governor is under pressure from the proponents of the project to proceed without further delay. You advise the Governor to initiate a forced relocation process offering the slightly increased compensation package negotiated earlier but that was not accepted as satisfactory by the affected communities. As agreement had not been reached, the resettlement process was at times conflictual, and people are not satisfied.

After the project was constructed, there was significant environmental harm and loss of the river’s wild fisheries. With the increased compensation, some members of the resettled community eventually could find an alternative means to livelihood, but over half could not and are left significantly worse off after the project than before. The impact on the environment also affected local tourism.

Meanwhile, the rice mill owners and the large-scale rice farmers are satisfied, as the Regional Rice Hub went ahead. The dam construction company was also satisfied enough, as the project went ahead, even as it was delayed. Macro-economic growth occurred in the city, mainly benefiting these economic elite stakeholders.

Outcome Analysis:

In this decision making, while there was an initial attempt to address the concerns of affected communities, ultimately the interests of the project proponents prevailed (exclusive reciprocity) resulting in conflictual responses from those harmed and excluded as the state initiated a forced relocation process (negative reciprocity). The slightly increased compensation packages was adequate enough for some (specific reciprocity), for others who lost their means to livelihood new poverty and inequality was created. Ultimately, the outcome overall did not benefit all residents of Riverbank City directly. The main beneficiaries were the rice mill owners, the large-scale rice farmers, and the dam construction company, whilst significant compromises and harm were borne by the affected communities.

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27

You advised the Governor to proceed with the large dam project, but to continue to negotiate with the affected communities even though it seems that there are few further state resources available that could be offered. While the resettlement process proceeded without strong protests, there remained dissatisfaction with the level of compensation and support that was provided as it was inadequate to replace lost livelihoods.

However, the requirement that negotiations continue did continue to work on finding solutions, and slowly new possibilities were identified including changing how the dam was operated to enable some fishery recovery that supported modest fishing-based livelihoods as well as cage-fisheries in the reservoir. In addition, some revenue from the electricity sales were allocated to fund livelihood programs that supported building new skills of affected communities that in turn was partly covered by increasing the price of the electricity sold from the project. Overall, there is still general dissatisfaction towards the project by those that opposed it, given the impact on affected peoples lives and the environmental impact. 

Meanwhile, the rice mill owners and the large-scale rice farmers are satisfied enough, as the Regional Rice Hub continued, even as they had to pay more for the electricity. The dam construction company was also satisfied enough, as the project went ahead, even as it was delayed and redesigned. Macro-economic growth occurred in the city, mainly benefiting these economic elite stakeholders.

Outcome Analysis:

By taking some account of all stakeholders’ interests in your advice, it reflects inclusive reciprocity and led to limited positive reciprocity. Whilst the focus remained on the original planned project, there was between specific and diffuse reciprocity as the possibilities within the original design were explored and widened. Ultimately, the outcome overall did not benefit all residents of Riverbank City directly. The main beneficiaries were the rice mill owners, the large-scale rice farmers, and the dam construction company, whilst significant compromises and harm were borne by the affected communities.

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26

You have recommended to the Governor to support a modified ‘compromise’ agro-industrial development approach.

The rice mill owners and the large-scale rice farmers are satisfied enough with the alternative proposed, that is of smaller scale than originally envisioned, but still facilitates the general plan that was first proposed. Whilst the dam construction company did not win a major contract, the Governor offered a small contract related to the construction of the solar farm that also was satisfactory enough.

The water diversion dams, together with the increased large-scale agriculture activity, has had some impact on the river and its ecosystems, and the number of wild capture fish have dropped a small amount, but the fishing communities continue to practice their original livelihood and consider it satisfactory enough that the original large dam project did not go ahead and has been permanently cancelled.

Other residents, including tourism and small-scale farmers were also satisfied enough, as in the process of redesigning the Regional Rice Hub compromises were also made to support a limited number of locally-led initiatives. Some innovative connections were made, for example, between biofuel small-scale electricity generation supplying the town and the rice mills, and the farm waste from the small- and large-scale rice farmers fields. 

While the redesign of the project delays the timeline from its original plan by 2 years, the Governor was satisfied with the outcome as they were reelected in the interim given the goodwill broadly generated from the compromise solution.

Outcome Analysis:

This decision-making that has led to the ‘compromise’ agro-industrial development approach has broadly reflected a participatory approach with numerous compromises along the way seeking to find some benefits for all involved whilst minimizing the harms created and avoiding their unequal allocation (i.e. inclusive, diffuse and positive reciprocity). While it took some time to reach the decision on the project design, the quality of decision making was improved with more careful consideration of the social and environmental negative impacts, and allowing time – even within a more limited budget – for more innovative solutions to be identified.

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24

You have advised to cancel the original project plan for a large dam and Regional Rice Hub, primarily due to a concern over the impacts on resettled communities and on the environment. Furthermore, to avoid the risk of further disagreement with those who opposed the project, you have opted to not explore any potential alternatives. Therefore, you have no further options to suggest to the Governor at this stage, asides from keeping the status quo.

The two fishing communities who would have been displaced are mostly satisfied with the outcome of this decision, as they can continue to practice their existing livelihoods. However, together with those involved in tourism and small-scale agriculture, they would have preferred further support for local development initiatives instead of the large dam. Meanwhile, the dam contractor, rice mill owners and the large-scale rice farmers are all very dissatisfied with the outcome, as their plans for expanded economic activity in Riverbank City have come to a halt.

The Governor is also not content with this outcome, as the national government expected a development initiative to proceed, and the Governor has nothing to suggest as an alternative. The Governor’s reelection looks uncertain, as even those who preferred the Regional Rice Hub project not to go ahead are not fully satisfied with the outcome.

Outcome Analysis:

This outcome is largely based on a zero-sum game where the fishing community and the river’s ecosystems won’t be negatively impacted by the large dam construction, but there is also no development alternatives suggested for others. The decision was made by considering various stakeholder’s opinions (i.e. inclusive reciprocity). However, as no alternatives were considered beyond the original project proposed, the exchanges were based on very specific forms of reciprocity. Given the general dissatisfaction, especially from economic elites in the town, trust in the Governor has suffered, and tit-for-tat negative actions may emerge in the longer term (i.e. negative reciprocity).

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19

The protests by those affected by the project, and who disagree with it, gathered momentum, and you advised to the Governor it is best to postpone the project to reconsider the options available.

One option is to re-evaluate the current large dam project, taking more consideration of the environmental and social impacts. Another option is to investigate development options that are different from the current plan.

Will you advise the Governor to re-evaluate the current large dam project with more attention to the environmental and social impacts, or investigate other development options?

18

You have advised to disperse the protest and proceed directly with the large dam construction. The project’s overall construction proceeded on time, but was very divisive and resulted in numerous subsequent protests.

Following the project’s completion, the Governor received praise from the national government, who considered the project to be a success as it was built within the set budget and timeline. The Regional Rice Hub subsequently was launched as originally planned, and the rice milling companies and large-scale rice farmers were very satisfied with the outcomes. This offers some incentive for new rice farmers and milling companies to come into business, although it remains to be seen if this will occur.

 However, there have been impacts from the large dam, especially on the quantity and biodiversity of fish, which has also directly impacted to fishing communities. The varying water level has also caused riverbank erosion and impacted local tourism businesses. There is still an overall feeling of discontent in the town among many people whose opinion was disregarded, and among those who were made to relocate and lost assets and livelihoods, and as well as those who experienced direct force from the police during the protest dispersal. The project did not benefit the wider population, and there is a widening gap between the economically advantaged and disadvantaged people in the town.

Outcome Analysis:

This outcome is based on a winner-takes-all solution (i.e. negative reciprocity). Decision-making involved a limited group of stakeholders (i.e. specific and exclusive reciprocity), most of whom are economic elites such as the dam contractors, rice mill owners and the large-scale rice farmers, all of who benefit directly from the dam construction. The positive economic impact of the project has benefited mainly this group, while environmental and social impact are emerging that have affected the wider population of the town. The decision-making process was rapid, and not inclusive or precautionary, resulting in a weakening of trust between the government and the majority of the town’s residents.

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14

You advised the Governor that the solar farm and smaller water diversion dam is the preferred option. The benefit of this option is that there are less environmental and social impacts, but the cost of the project and the electricity has notably increased.

Given that the reception to a somewhat more socially and environmentally sustainable project has been generally welcomed at greater cost, there is the opportunity to consider whether to move still further in this direction. The current project proposal still primarily benefits the large-scale actors (rice millers and rice farmers), and questions have been raised by others in Riverbank City who small-scale fishers are, farmers and those involved in tourism as to why the additional cost should be covered by the city as a whole. 

Would you like to recommend to the Governor to conduct a broader study gathering a wide range of viewpoints or proceed with funding the solar farm and water diversion dam?

12

Aiming to be as inclusive as possible, and to broaden out the potential options available, you have advised to set up a committee to explore new development pathways for Riverbank City. You have invited representatives from all of the major groups in the city and surrounding area, including: those that engage in various local small-scale activities, such as fishing, farming and local tourism sectors; those involved in large-scale farming, namely large-scale farmers and rice millers; as well as the construction company that had sought the contract for the large dam. The committee also invites the Governor and government officers as observers.

The outcome of the deliberations broadly aligned along two visions. Those involved in small-scale activities argued to use state budget to support them, suggesting that there could be an integrated approach between tourism, fishing and farming, underpinned by environmental conservation. They proposed that this would create the most equal distribution of benefits and opportunities and be most sustainable, and not require large amounts of new water and electricity. They argued that the Regional Rice Hub and large dam vision would undermine the possibility of this locally-led integrated approach, and could result in public protests.

However, the large-scale farmers and rice millers, as well as the construction company argued that large-scale plans were still necessary for economic growth in Riverbank City, which would ultimately ‘trickle down’ to everyone. They were willing to compromise on the original scale of the Regional Rice Hub and large dam vision, but concluded that a comparable vision for agro-industrial development was needed including more water and electricity resources, although the latter could be generated by solar PV instead of a large dam. They argue that the locally-led integrated approach would not achieve rapid economic growth for Riverbank City, which has been echoed by some (but not all) local government agencies that are also concerned on the complexity of implementing the locally-led development plan.

The process has drawn upon the state budget, and taken more time since the original Regional Rice Hub plan was proposed. The Governor is now very concerned about the upcoming election, as well as increasing pressure from the national government to accelerate economic development in Riverbank City.

Would you advise the Governor to allocate the remaining budget to: 1) support the locally-led integrated approach; or 2) support a modified ‘compromise’ agro-industrial development approach which replaces the large dam project with a solar farm project?

11

You have advised that a study should be conducted to assess for a project option that avoids all resettlement. It took an additional six months to undertake and entailed additional cost for the Riverside City government. The conclusion of the study was that the existing design could not be modified to avoid resettlement and a suitable alternative site is not available that is technically feasible.

The rice mill owners, large-scale rice farmers, and the construction company are now impatient at the process, and stating their dissatisfaction to the media. Meanwhile, those who have challenged the project, including the fishing communities and other residents concerned about cultural and environmental impacts are calling for its cancellation.

Would you advise to the Governor to 1) explore other large-scale project alternatives that could attain similar outcomes to the Regional Rice Hub plan; 2) commission additional research on peoples’ development needs; or 3) cancel the large dam and Regional Rice Hub project without a replacement?

09

While you have advised to proceed with the large dam, you have suggested that the compensation package might be negotiated. An initial round of mediated discussions, however, have proven difficult. Some members of the fishing communities consider the value of the river almost irreplaceable, while land speculators have entered the town pushing up the price of replacement land. Overall, the state budget is found to be inadequate to meet the proposed compensation package requested by the two communities, who are also growing frustrated with the process. Additional possible offers, including prioritized recruitment for the dam project construction, do not appeal to all community members, while the construction company also resists.

Would you like to advise the Governor to (1) initiate a forced relocation process providing as much budget as is available for compensation; or (2) continue to negotiate, despite apparently no further options remaining and pressuring mounting to proceed with the project from the project’s proponents?

08

The decision to proceed with large dam project to catalyze the Regional Rice Hub was broadly supported by the rice millers and large-scale farmers, and the Governor was optimistic that as a relatively small proportion of the town’s population was directly affected by the forced relocation it would not result in a large protest. Meanwhile, additional influential actors joined those backing the project, including the hired construction company and consultants.

However, now that construction is about to start, there is a problem. Protests have erupted formed of affected communities claiming they are defending their livelihoods, and also supporters from outside the town as well who argue that their tax money should be spent on better solutions. The protests are being widely covered in the national media, which is affecting the reputation of the Governor, while some originally supportive residents are now unsure about the project given that the protests are also affecting the town’s reputation, including for tourism.

Would you advise the Governor to ask the police to disperse the protest to proceed with the large dam construction or announce a postponement of the project to consider the range of options?

07

The various actors interpret this approach as acknowledging the need to explore other water and power options beyond the original large dam plan, but that the project should still be large-scale due to perceptions of efficiency and potential for economic growth. The result of the technical study proposes that a large-scale solar farm could be built for power supply for the town and rice mills, and that land for the project is available from a private landowner who is willing to sell their land. Meanwhile a smaller water diversion dam on a tributary to the river can supply water for irrigated rice agriculture, but for a smaller area than the original Regional Rice Hub plan.

Overall, the technical study on other options for large-scale projects has identified a compromise solution that is not quite as cost-effective as the original plan but that avoids the construction of the large dam that would affect fisher livelihoods and the river’s ecosystems. The rice mill and large farmers are generally OK with the proposed solution, although still prefer the original plan. Meanwhile, the Governor has expressed some concern that if there are delays it may affect their election campaign next year.

Would you advise to the Governor to proceed with the original Regional Rice Hub and large dam plan, or to go ahead with the solar farm and smaller-scale water diversion dam?

06

The initial findings of the study finds that only 25 percent of the population agree with the Regional Rice Hub policy, although amongst them are influential political and economic actors including the rice millers and large-scale farmers. The other 75 percent include residents with a diverse range of mainly small-scale livelihoods including fishing, tourism, services sectors, and farming. From the initial survey, a specific alternative recommendation didn’t emerge, but expressed a general viewpoint that the Regional Rice Hub policy could undermine their livelihoods and affect the town’s local environment and culture.

On hearing the study’s findings, the Governor indicates their general support for the Rice Hub plan, as it seems like a more definite strategy to be acted upon for economic growth and to address electricity shortage. However, the Governor is also concerned that many residents do not agree with the plan, even as alternatives are not identified. All of these considerations could emerge as election issues the following year.

One option is to conduct a primarily technical study on other options for large-scale projects beyond the Regional Rice Hub that includes an option for the large-dam but other possibilities for large-scale development as well. A second option is to set up a new committee with representative members from across the town’s professions mandated to identify new development pathways for Riverbank City.

Will you advise to the Governor to conduct a technical study on other options for large-scale projects beyond the Regional Rice Hub or set up a committee to identify new development pathways?

05

The social and environmental impact studies find that if the large dam is built at the proposed location two fishing villages will need to be relocated. There are 500 people in each village, which makes up 4% of the total population.

The public participation during the social and environmental impact study found that half of the community members or more are not willing to move for a range of reasons, including because they have fished for generations and they do not know other ways of making a living, the river has cultural importance to them, and for some the compensation package is not enough for them to buy land to become farmers.

The Governor also has the authority to negotiate directly with the community members to increase the compensation package, although once initiated they can take some time and potentially delay the project for several years. It might also be possible to examine other options for the large dam, in which no resettlement is required, although again this could potentially delay the project for several years.

Would you advise to negotiate the compensation package with the community or initiate a new technical proposal that avoids all resettlement?

04

You have advised to keep the feasibility purely technical. This indicates to the various stakeholders that you are confident that the large dam and its associated Regional Rice Hub plan is the most efficient way to support Riverbank City’s economic growth, and that many people would either directly or indirectly benefit from the project.

The technical feasibility study finds that the large dam can be built at its proposed location, and is economically viable. However, the study identified that the project would require the relocation of 2 villages each with 500 residents, which makes up 4% of the city population. To proceed with the project, following the technical feasibility study, the villages will need to be resettled.

The state has a land acquisition law with a standard relocation compensation package that legally resettles people but that some academics have found does not always provide enough support for affected community members. However, the Governor also has the authority to negotiate directly with the community members to increase the compensation package, although once initiated they can take some time and potentially delay the project for several years.

Will you advise to the Governor to immediately relocate the two villages with the standard package or negotiate the compensation package with the two villages?

03

You have advised to explore if there are other development options available that may address the city's need as well as responding more to people's need. This has raised a mixture of support from some sectors, fishing communities and some residents concerned about the impact of large scale development on the town’s local environment and culture, but also concern from others including the rice millers, large-scale farmers, and some residents worried about electricity shortages. The Governor is concerned about the possibility of delay in promoting a development initiative for the town, given the election next year.

Will you now advise whether to: 1) Conduct a broader study gathering a wide range of viewpoints on what people in Riverbank City see as their needs for their development. This option will generate many ideas, but may risk a disagreement between those aiming for rapid large-scale development and some groups who oppose it. 2) Conduct a primarily technical study on other options for large-scale projects that could meet water and electricity demand including an option for the large-dam but other possibilities for large-scale development as well.

Would you advise to conduct a broader study gathering a wide range of viewpoints or conduct a primarily technical study on other options for large-scale projects?

02

You have advised to move ahead with the feasibility study for the large dam, also implying to the public that the Regional Rice Hub plan appears to be a promising response to Riverbank City’s development goals. This has raised a mixture of support from some sectors, such as the rice millers, large-scale farmers, and some residents worried about electricity shortages, but concern from others including fishing communities and some residents concerned about the impact of large scale development on the town’s local environment and culture.

There are various options for the feasibility study. One approach to the study would focus primarily onto the technical design of the large dam including on the economic return on investment, which would mainly involve technical experts and could be completed rapidly. The second approach to the study also includes the social and environmental impacts and would require public consultations with the nearby communities risking that the project would be questioned by some affected communities.

Would you advise the feasibility study to focus mainly onto technical design, or include studies on the social and environmental impact studies including public consultations?

01

The Governor of Riverbank City would like to initiate a new development program for the city and its surrounding areas, and is considering a proposal to establish a ‘Regional Rice Hub’ plan. Central to the plan is the construction of a large dam on the river that passes through the city. The proposed dam would be located upstream of Riverbank City.

The large dam would produce electricity for rice milling companies, and would also sell electricity to Riverbank City itself, which is starting to face a shortage of supply. The dam would also regulate and manage water to irrigate large-scale rice paddy fields. However, other local livelihoods relate to fishing on the river, and the dam could affect the rich biodiversity of the river.

The Governor, who is facing an election next year, has asked your advice on the plan. What would you recommend?

Would you advise to initiate a study on the feasibility of the large dam, which is central to moving forward with the Regional Rice Hub plan, or advise to study other development options?